Weather Blog
Daily outlooks and forecasts for the Eastern Sierra
Latest Outlook
Tropical Moisture Coming? Burners Beware!
Remnants from Tropical Storm Iselle appear likely to merge with an upper-level low, bringing rain to the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Exact placement of the heaviest plume of moisture remains uncertain; however, totals of 0.1-1" of liquid appear likely over the Sierra Nevada, with Black Rock City poised to receive rain just in time for Burning Man's entrance day.
August 26, 2026
Tropical Moisture Coming? Burners Beware!
Remnants from Tropical Storm Iselle appear likely to merge with an upper-level low, bringing rain to the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Exact placement of the heaviest plume of moisture remains uncertain; however, totals of 0.1-1" of liquid appear likely over the Sierra Nevada, with Black Rock City poised to receive rain just in time for Burning Man's entrance day.
Monsoon Reloading!
A larger surge of moisture arrives tomorrow, bringing more widespread thunderstorm coverage, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. This coincides with a West Coast trough, resulting in lower temperatures but an elevated risk of dry lightning over coastal and Sierra foothills areas.
Monsoonal Moisture Returns, the Heatwave Leaves, and an El Niño Update
This weekend will feature increasing thunderstorm coverage as some monsoonal moisture makes its way over the area. There are continued chances for more monsoonal moisture toward the end of next week, as a weak West Coast troughing pattern is favored, which should also bring temps down. Also, the latest El Niño forecasts continue to show a historic event unfolding.
Big Heatwave Coming to the West, Containment For Owens Valley Fires, And, How Well Can Winter in the Southern Hemisphere Predict Our Winter?
Containment is improving on the Rock Fire and Cinder Complex as a major heatwave builds across the West. Plus, a look at whether wet winters in Chile and New Zealand can offer clues about Mammoth’s following winter during strong El Niño events.
A Close Call With Some Tropical Remnants, a Retreating Monsoon, and a Large Brush Fire Near Aberdeen!
The past few days have featured some mountain thunderstorms driven by a close call with tropical remnants. Widespread thunderstorms today will give way to clearer weather as the monsoon retreats from the Sierra for the foreseeable future. A large brush fire broke out yesterday near Aberdeen and is currently at 2,500 acres with 5% containment. Evacuation orders are in place as the fire continues to burn.
A Brewing Monsoon! And, What's the Latest With Our Godzilla El Niño?
A strong ridge over the Plains will cause a record-breaking heat wave across Montana and surrounding states. At the same time, a favorable upper-level flow pattern will transport monsoonal moisture into the Southwest and Sierra Nevada. Eastern Pacific tropical activity may also begin increasing. Finally, the latest model runs are in, and El Niño looks increasingly likely to reach historic strength! But what does it all mean???
May Ends With Snow?
A cutoff low pressure system forms this week, stalling over our region bringing snow showers Weds / Thurs. The days that follow will have afternoon thunderstorms. Longer-range, a mostly warm and dry pattern with occasional mountain thunderstorms is likely.
Snow, It's Been Nice. Now, a Substantial Heatwave is Coming
After several days of high-level snow showers and thunderstorms, a major pattern change is coming. A substantial heatwave will begin to build in, with several days of only a superficial refreeze at higher elevations. After that, there are early indications that we may enter a convective showery pattern.
May Day! Snow Showers to Start the Month, With a Warmer and Drier Long Term Outlook
May is starting off with several days of convectively energized showers and thunderstorms. Longer term, a drier and warmer outlook is currently favored for the West Coast.
Showers Next Week. And Then, A Spring Transition?
After an active April, May looks to start with showers confined mostly to the Sierra Nevada, followed by warmer and drier weather. Has spring finally sprung?
Merry Fishmas! The Prophecy Comes True! Plus, Is It Time To Drink The El Niño Kool-aid?
In classic fishmas fashion, unsettled weather will return to the Sierra Nevada this weekend, with temps remaining mostly near seasonal levels and occasional showers possible for the foreseeable future.
Auspicious April: Storm Tuesday, More Chances to Round Out the Month!
Our winter storm Tuesday has been trending stronger. A dynamic system will impact the state today through Wednesday before giving way to clear weather. By this weekend, storm chances are ramping up again, fueled by a very active southern jetstream. The West could remain unsettled for some time as a result
A Last April Hurrah?
A storm is forecast to impact California next week, bringing widespread rain to the state and snow to the Sierra Nevada. After that, models hint at an extended pattern of below average temperatures.
Awesome April! All Aboard the Train!
A passing trough to the north on Thursday will bring colder temps and very weak scattered showers, as well as increasing clouds. Weak high pressure will build in over the weekend before another storm window early next week. Awesome April can't save us from our Malevolent March, but perhaps it's a consolation prize?
Great Storm! Thank You Ullr! Cooler Temps This Week, Storm Chances Next Week
Mammoth picked up a total of 21 inches from the winter storm, bringing 3 day totals of 25 inches. Looking ahead, a cooler week is on tap as a trough passes to our north, and storm chances increase into next week.
Winter's Revenge! Showers through Saturday, Winter Storm Saturday Night
Showers will pick up this evening and lull Saturday before a stronger cold front moves in bringing lower snow levels and heavy snow.
A Proper Winter Storm!
We enter a showery pattern this evening, with showers picking up in the afternoon Friday into Saturday, followed by a proper winter storm!
Unsettled Weather Returns Later This Week... But How much?
After a week of warmer weather, an unsettled and cooler pattern looks likely. There are some indications it could linger for some time.
March 2026: An Analysis of The Worst Snowpack Loss in 50+ Years for the Eastern Sierra
A deep dive into the numbers behind March 2026's historic snowmelt across the Eastern and Southern Sierra. Across 39 SWE-reporting stations with up to 50 years of data, March 2026 ranks #1 for snowpack loss at 30 of them. In a month that historically builds snowpack, the Sierra lost an average of nearly 9 inches of SWE.
Warming up, possible undercutting systems later next week?
Amounts varied widely with yesterday's convectively-driven showers. We will now begin on a warming trend through the weekend. By the 9th of April, there are early indications that troughs may try to weakly undercut the Gulf of Alaska ridge, but confidence remains low.
Very windy with a side of snow
Yesterday's storm shifted northward at the last minute, resulting in a massively overperforming system farther north. The Mammoth area underperformed, with more showers this evening. Longer range, we dry out and warm up...
Showers trending up slightly...
Hi-res models are getting this storm into view, and are painting a very slightly wetter picture.
A weak pair of storms coming...
Warm weather gives way to unsettled weather. Uncertainty remains around snowfall amounts, but it looks like a weak storm with high snow levels.
A pattern change is coming. A big storm? Not so fast...
Above-average temps will remain through the weekend before a pattern change brings much cooler weather, with some showers to CA. There is still a large amount of uncertainty around this system.
A pattern change coming? But first, more heat!!
The next 5-6 days will remain much above-average temps, with a possible return to cooler and active weather Mar 31 – April 3rd.