Weather Blog
Daily outlooks and forecasts for the Eastern Sierra
Latest Outlook
Hurricane Rachel and a Possible Cutoff Low: Will the Sierra Get In On It?
Warm and dry weather holds through the weekend. Early next week, a cold trough diving in from the north may cut off over California while the remnants of Hurricane Rachel stream north. The most likely outcome sends moisture into Southern California and the desert Southwest, with snow for Utah and the Great Basin ranges. A less likely outcome wraps that moisture into the Sierra, with modest rain and some snow. The spread between models is wide, and that spread is the story.
October 7, 2026
Hurricane Rachel and a Possible Cutoff Low: Will the Sierra Get In On It?
Warm and dry weather holds through the weekend. Early next week, a cold trough diving in from the north may cut off over California while the remnants of Hurricane Rachel stream north. The most likely outcome sends moisture into Southern California and the desert Southwest, with snow for Utah and the Great Basin ranges. A less likely outcome wraps that moisture into the Sierra, with modest rain and some snow. The spread between models is wide, and that spread is the story.
More September Snow in the Sierra? And, Will Trailfest Be Spared From the Dome Fire's Smoke?
Another string of troughs appears likely across California, keeping temps cooler and bringing another dusting of snow to the higher elevations this Sunday-Monday. The exact placement of precipitation is uncertain. The following week appears likely to continue this story. The Dome Fire continues to burn and is 4,133 acres and 16% contained.
A September Dusting For High Peaks! And, A Dome Fire Update
A weak trough this week will bring a small amount of snow to the highest peaks along the Southern Sierra Crest, as well as scattered thunderstorms. After that, beautiful fall weather is in store. In other news, the weather has moderated the growth of the Dome Fire, where crews have made meaningful containment advances. The return of high pressure this week could bring an uptick in fire activity and smoke impacts to the Eastern Sierra.
Dome Fire Ignites in Yosemite National Park... Showers Next Week?
The new Dome Fire started yesterday in Yosemite National Park, near Chilnualna Falls. It grew rapidly during its first day and is burning in a relatively large pocket of unburned and rugged terrain. Next week, there is a chance of some showers on Monday as a weak trough passes over, with more troughing activity appearing likely into the longer range, keeping temperatures down.
Cool and Dry Fall Weather is Favored. What Does It Mean For Our Foliage?
Cool and dry weather will persist for the foreseeable future, with a weak signal for increasing precipitation chances 10-15 days out. Fall foliage is already beginning to pop off in places, and some of our higher elevations may peak slightly ahead of the usual progression.
Tropical Moisture Coming? Burners Beware!
Remnants from Tropical Storm Iselle appear likely to merge with an upper-level low, bringing rain to the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Exact placement of the heaviest plume of moisture remains uncertain; however, totals of 0.1-1" of liquid appear likely over the Sierra Nevada, with Black Rock City poised to receive rain just in time for Burning Man's entrance day.
Monsoon Reloading!
A larger surge of moisture arrives tomorrow, bringing more widespread thunderstorm coverage, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. This coincides with a West Coast trough, resulting in lower temperatures but an elevated risk of dry lightning over coastal and Sierra foothills areas.
Monsoonal Moisture Returns, the Heatwave Leaves, and an El Niño Update
This weekend will feature increasing thunderstorm coverage as some monsoonal moisture makes its way over the area. There are continued chances for more monsoonal moisture toward the end of next week, as a weak West Coast troughing pattern is favored, which should also bring temps down. Also, the latest El Niño forecasts continue to show a historic event unfolding.
Big Heatwave Coming to the West, Containment For Owens Valley Fires, And, How Well Can Winter in the Southern Hemisphere Predict Our Winter?
Containment is improving on the Rock Fire and Cinder Complex as a major heatwave builds across the West. Plus, a look at whether wet winters in Chile and New Zealand can offer clues about Mammoth’s following winter during strong El Niño events.
A Close Call With Some Tropical Remnants, a Retreating Monsoon, and a Large Brush Fire Near Aberdeen!
The past few days have featured some mountain thunderstorms driven by a close call with tropical remnants. Widespread thunderstorms today will give way to clearer weather as the monsoon retreats from the Sierra for the foreseeable future. A large brush fire broke out yesterday near Aberdeen and is currently at 2,500 acres with 5% containment. Evacuation orders are in place as the fire continues to burn.
A Brewing Monsoon! And, What's the Latest With Our Godzilla El Niño?
A strong ridge over the Plains will cause a record-breaking heat wave across Montana and surrounding states. At the same time, a favorable upper-level flow pattern will transport monsoonal moisture into the Southwest and Sierra Nevada. Eastern Pacific tropical activity may also begin increasing. Finally, the latest model runs are in, and El Niño looks increasingly likely to reach historic strength! But what does it all mean???
May Ends With Snow?
A cutoff low pressure system forms this week, stalling over our region bringing snow showers Weds / Thurs. The days that follow will have afternoon thunderstorms. Longer-range, a mostly warm and dry pattern with occasional mountain thunderstorms is likely.
Snow, It's Been Nice. Now, a Substantial Heatwave is Coming
After several days of high-level snow showers and thunderstorms, a major pattern change is coming. A substantial heatwave will begin to build in, with several days of only a superficial refreeze at higher elevations. After that, there are early indications that we may enter a convective showery pattern.
May Day! Snow Showers to Start the Month, With a Warmer and Drier Long Term Outlook
May is starting off with several days of convectively energized showers and thunderstorms. Longer term, a drier and warmer outlook is currently favored for the West Coast.
Showers Next Week. And Then, A Spring Transition?
After an active April, May looks to start with showers confined mostly to the Sierra Nevada, followed by warmer and drier weather. Has spring finally sprung?
Merry Fishmas! The Prophecy Comes True! Plus, Is It Time To Drink The El Niño Kool-aid?
In classic fishmas fashion, unsettled weather will return to the Sierra Nevada this weekend, with temps remaining mostly near seasonal levels and occasional showers possible for the foreseeable future.
Auspicious April: Storm Tuesday, More Chances to Round Out the Month!
Our winter storm Tuesday has been trending stronger. A dynamic system will impact the state today through Wednesday before giving way to clear weather. By this weekend, storm chances are ramping up again, fueled by a very active southern jetstream. The West could remain unsettled for some time as a result
A Last April Hurrah?
A storm is forecast to impact California next week, bringing widespread rain to the state and snow to the Sierra Nevada. After that, models hint at an extended pattern of below average temperatures.
Awesome April! All Aboard the Train!
A passing trough to the north on Thursday will bring colder temps and very weak scattered showers, as well as increasing clouds. Weak high pressure will build in over the weekend before another storm window early next week. Awesome April can't save us from our Malevolent March, but perhaps it's a consolation prize?
Great Storm! Thank You Ullr! Cooler Temps This Week, Storm Chances Next Week
Mammoth picked up a total of 21 inches from the winter storm, bringing 3 day totals of 25 inches. Looking ahead, a cooler week is on tap as a trough passes to our north, and storm chances increase into next week.
Winter's Revenge! Showers through Saturday, Winter Storm Saturday Night
Showers will pick up this evening and lull Saturday before a stronger cold front moves in bringing lower snow levels and heavy snow.
A Proper Winter Storm!
We enter a showery pattern this evening, with showers picking up in the afternoon Friday into Saturday, followed by a proper winter storm!
Unsettled Weather Returns Later This Week... But How much?
After a week of warmer weather, an unsettled and cooler pattern looks likely. There are some indications it could linger for some time.
March 2026: An Analysis of The Worst Snowpack Loss in 50+ Years for the Eastern Sierra
A deep dive into the numbers behind March 2026's historic snowmelt across the Eastern and Southern Sierra. Across 39 SWE-reporting stations with up to 50 years of data, March 2026 ranks #1 for snowpack loss at 30 of them. In a month that historically builds snowpack, the Sierra lost an average of nearly 9 inches of SWE.
Warming up, possible undercutting systems later next week?
Amounts varied widely with yesterday's convectively-driven showers. We will now begin on a warming trend through the weekend. By the 9th of April, there are early indications that troughs may try to weakly undercut the Gulf of Alaska ridge, but confidence remains low.